雙語閱讀：微軟CEO納德拉重塑微軟

A DECADE ago, visiting Microsoft’s headquarters near Seattle was like a trip into enemy territory. Executives would not so much talk with visitors as fire words at them (one of this newspaper’s correspondents has yet to recover from two harrowing days spent in the company of a Microsoft “brand evangelist”). If challenged on the corporate message, their body language would betray what they were thinking and what Bill Gates, the firm’s founder, used often to say: “That’s the stupidest fucking thing I’ve ever heard.”

十年前，參觀西雅圖附近的微軟總部就像是在深入敵營。微軟高管機關槍式的講話實非訪客所能招架（本報有位記者曾去微軟做過兩天采訪，至今還沒走出“微軟式”品牌傳播的陰影）。但凡對微軟的企業理念提出一點質疑，微軟高管們的身體都會暴露出他們的真實想法以及公司創始人比爾•蓋茨的曾經的口頭禪——“我從沒聽過比這更蠢的話！”

Today the mood at Microsoft’s campus, a sprawling collection of more than 100 buildings, is strikingly different. The word-count per minute is much lower. Questions, however ignorant or critical, are answered patiently. The firm’s boss, Satya Nadella (pictured), strikes a different and gentler tone from Mr Gates and Steve Ballmer, his immediate predecessor (although he, too, has a highly competitive side).

如今，籠罩在百餘棟建築構成的且還在不斷擴大的微軟總部上的氛圍截然不同了。高管們不僅放慢了講話速度，對“白癡”和“挑刺”問題也更有耐心了。與微軟創始人比爾•蓋茨或剛卸任的前CEO史蒂芬•鮑爾默（Steve Ballmer）不同，微軟現任CEO薩蒂亞•納德拉（Satya Nadella）（如圖）更加溫文爾雅（不過，他也有極度好勝的一麵）。

Both these descriptions are caricatures. But they point to an underlying truth: how radically the world’s biggest software firm has changed in the short time since Mr Nadella took charge in early 2014. Back then everything at Microsoft revolved around Windows, the operating system that powered most computers. It was a franchise the company believed needed to be extended and defended at almost any price.

對比曾經和現在的微軟的描述都有誇張成分，但是，都反映出了這樣一個事實：從納德拉在2014年初接任微軟CEO開始，這個全球最大的軟件公司在短短幾年中做出了巨大的改變。納德拉上任時，微軟全部的業務都還在以Windows操作係統為核心運轉，微團不惜以任何代價推廣與維護自己對Windows的特許經營權。

Windows has since retreated into a supporting role; sometimes it is little more than a loss-leader to push other products. At the heart of the new Microsoft is Azure, a global computing cloud. It is formed of more than 100 data centres around the world, dishing up web-based applications, bringing mobile devices to life and crunching data for artificial-intelligence (AI) services. Along with this shift in strategy has come a less abrasive, more open culture.

納德拉上任後，Windows逐漸退居二線，有時甚至可以為推銷其他產品而虧本銷售。取代Windows成為微軟的核心產品是Azure，全球雲計算，由100多個全球數據中心組成，提供基於Web的應用程序，可以豐富移動設備功能，為人工智能處理數據。除了在商業策略上的轉型外，微軟在文化上也變得更加開放，更加平易近人。

Microsoft’s transformation is far from complete. Windows, Office—the once equally dominant package of applications for personal computers—and other PC-related products together still generate about two-fifths of its revenues and three-quarters of its profits. But even those who have watched Mr Nadella’s actions with a high degree of scepticism reckon the firm is moving on from its cash-cows.

微軟的轉型還遠未完成。曾經是兩個最主要的PC應用程序的Windows操作係統和Office辦公軟件，連同其他PC類產品至今依然占微軟總收入的40%和總利潤的75%左右。不過，即使是那些對納德拉的改革持高度懷疑態度的人也認為，微軟正在一步步遠離它的“搖錢樹”。

The firm’s transformation did not begin with Mr Nadella. It launched Azure and started to rewrite its software for the cloud under Mr Ballmer. But Mr Nadella has given Microsoft a new Gestalt, or personality, that investors appear to like. The firm’s share price has nearly doubled since he took over (see chart).

事實上，微軟的轉型不是從納德拉才開始的。在鮑爾默領導下，微軟推出了Azure，並著手為這一雲產品重寫軟件。納德拉賦予微軟一種新“人格”，為投資者所樂見。微軟的股價自從納德拉上任後便幾乎翻了一番（見下表）。

Dethroning Windows was the first task. Previously, new products were held back or shorn of certain features if these were thought to hurt the program (something known internally as the “strategy tax”). One of Mr Nadella’s early decisions was to allow Office to run on mobile devices that use competing operating systems. He went so far as to use a slide that read “Microsoft loves Linux”. Mr Ballmer had called the open-source operating system a “cancer”.

剝奪Windows的核心地位是首要任務。此前，隻要新產品的研發威脅到了Windows的發展就會停止或犧牲部分性能（微軟內部稱為“戰略稅”）。納德拉最早的一個決策就是讓Office能夠在使用Windows以外操作係統的移動設備上運行。他甚至在一張幻燈片上寫到“微軟愛Linux”，要知道，微軟上一位掌門人鮑爾默可是把Linux這種開放的操作係統稱為“癌症”的。

The downgrading of Windows made it easier for Mr Nadella to change the firm’s culture—which is so important, he believes (along with Peter Drucker), that it “eats strategy for breakfast”. Technologies come and go, he says, so “we need a culture that allows you to constantly renew yourself”. Whereas Mr Ballmer was known for running across the stage and yelling “I love this company”, Mr Nadella can often be seen sitting in the audience, listening. When, in 2016, internet trolls manipulated Tay, one of Microsoft’s AI-powered online bots, into spewing racist comments, people waited for heads to roll. Mr Nadella sent around an e-mail saying “Keep pushing, and know that I am with you…(the) key is to keep learning and improving.”

Windows核心地位的下降有利於納德拉改革微軟企業文化。納德拉認為，企業文化十分重要，他援引了彼得•德魯克（Peter Drucker）的話，即“企業文化能把戰略當早餐吃”。納德拉還表示，科技革新非常快，“我們需要一種能夠讓我們不斷革新自己的企業文化”。鮑爾默總是跑到台上大喊“我愛微軟”，而納德拉則常常坐在觀眾席中靜靜聆聽。2016年，微軟推出的人工智能機器人Tay在網絡黑客的操縱下發表了有關種族歧視的言論，就在人們等著微軟開除相關負責人的時候，納德拉給公司員工發了一封郵件，他在郵件裏寫道“繼續努力，別怕，我與大家同在……隻要不斷學習和改進，我們就能取得成功”。

Employees are no longer assessed on a curve, with those ending up at the lower end often getting no bonus or promotion. For the firm’s annual executive retreat in 2015, Mr Nadella included the heads of companies Microsoft had recently acquired, such as Mojang, the maker of Minecraft, a video game, and Acompli, an e-mail app, breaking with the tradition that only longtime executives can attend.

此外，微軟也不再根據業績報表評估員工能力，如今業績難看的員工也有可能獲得獎金或晉升。納德拉還打破了隻有資深高管才能進入微軟管理層核心的傳統，將微軟新收購企業——如電子遊戲《我的世界》（Minecraft）的開發商魔讚協同公司（Mojang）和郵件應用開發商Acompli——的高層納入了2015年微軟總部高層人事調整的範圍。

The book of Nadella

納德拉的業績

Sending such signals matters more than ever in the tech industry. Well-regarded firms find it easier to recruit top-notch talent, which is highly mobile and has its pick of employers. A reputation for aggression can attract the attention of regulators and lead to a public backlash, as Microsoft itself knows from experience and Uber, a ride-hailing unicorn, is finding out.

對於科技行業來說，傳遞出這樣的訊息尤為重要。知名企業更為容易地招聘到高端人才，而高端人才流動性強，也會選擇雇主。企業若是以殘酷的人才競爭與淘汰聞名，不但會招來監管部門的注意，也會引起公眾的反感，這是微軟從過往經驗中學到的，也是全球領先打車軟件優步（Uber）正在上的一課。

Mr Nadella has changed the firm’s organisation as well as its culture. It is now more of a vertically integrated technology firm—“full stack”, in the jargon. It not only writes all kinds of software, but builds its own data centres and designs its own hardware. Mr Nadella points out that it now even develops some of the chips for its data centres.

納德拉不僅改變了微軟的組織架構，也改變了它的企業文化。微軟現在更像一個垂直整合（術語叫做“全端開發”）的科技公司，不僅能開發各種軟件，同時也能建立自己的數據中心，設計自己的硬件。據納德拉稱，現在微軟還為自己的數據中心開發芯片。

His imprint can be seen on three businesses in particular: the cloud, hardware and AI. Microsoft does not break out by how much it has increased investment in the cloud, but building data centres is expensive and its capital expenditure is soon expected nearly to double, to $9bn a year, from when Mr Nadella took over. If you take only basic services, such as data storage and computing, Microsoft’s cloud is much smaller than Amazon Web Services, the leader in cloud computing, which is owned by Amazon, an e-commerce giant. But if you add Microsoft’s web-based services, such as Office 365 and other business applications, which are only a negligible part of AWS’s portfolio, the two firms are of comparable size. Both AWS’s and Microsoft’s cloud businesses boast an annual run rate (the latest quarterly revenues multiplied by four) of $14bn. Microsoft hopes to reach $20bn by its 2018 financial year, a fifth of total expected revenues.

納德拉對微軟的三大業務發展的影響最為深遠：雲產品、硬件業務和人工智能。微軟的轉變並不是體現在它在雲產品方麵增加了多少投資，盡管數據中心的建立花費巨大，微軟的資本支出相較納德拉上任時很快將增加近一倍，達到每年90億美元。在提供諸如數據存儲和計算等基礎服務方麵，微軟的雲產品要比電商巨頭亞馬遜旗下的雲計算領軍者亞馬遜雲服務所占磁盤空間小得多。不過，如果用戶要添加微軟開發的基於Web的服務，比如說Office 365和其它應用（這些在亞馬遜雲服務係列中隻是不起眼的一小部分），那麼兩種產品大小相當。亞馬遜雲服務和微軟雲產品每年的業務量都達到140億美元（以最新季度總收入乘以四計）。微軟希望其雲產品收入在2018財年可以到達200億美元，達到預期總收入的五分之一。

In terms of scale, then, there has been much progress. Yet in stark contrast to AWS, which supplies the bulk of Amazon’s profits, Azure is still loss-making. Some analysts are optimistic that this could change. Mark Moerdler of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, thinks that once Microsoft tapers its investments in data centres and their utilisation goes up, it could approach the margins enjoyed by AWS, which reached more than 30% in the last quarter.

在規模方麵，微軟雲產品也取得了長足的進步。與作為亞馬遜主要收入來源的亞馬遜雲服務相比，Azure仍然在賠本賺吆喝。一些分析人士持樂觀態度，認為這種情況會有所改變。盛博（Sanford C. Bernstein）研究機構的馬克•莫德勒（Mark Moerdler）認為，如果微軟對數據中心的投資逐漸減少，它的數據中心的使用率上升，所得利潤便能同亞馬遜雲服務相當，後者上一季度的利潤率增長了30%以上。

Scott Guthrie, who heads Azure, admits that the margins for cloud-based services will probably be lower than for conventional software. But when applications are delivered online, he points out, Microsoft can capture a bigger slice of the overall pie. As well as offering its existing software as services in the cloud, it also takes care of components of IT systems, such as storage and networking, that used to be provided by other vendors. The firm’s addressable market is far bigger, he says.

微軟Azure之父斯科特•格思裏（Scott Guthrie）承認雲服務的利潤率可能比傳統軟件低。不過，他也指出，一旦應用程序開始在網絡上運作，微軟便能分得更大的一杯羹。微軟除了在雲領域提供既有軟件作為服務外，也開始自主開發存儲和網絡等IT係統組件，這些之前都是由其他供應商提供的。格思裏認為，微軟可開發的市場遠比目前要大。

Perhaps. But however well Microsoft performs, life in the cloud will always be far tougher than it was in the realm of personal computers, argues David Mitchell Smith of Gartner, a consultancy. Microsoft will not only have to compete with Amazon, but with Google, which intends to go after business customers.

也許是這樣吧。不過，谘詢機構高德納（Gartner）的大衛•米切爾•史密斯（David Mitchell Smith）稱，不論微軟表現多麼傑出，在雲領域的日子將永遠比PC領域難過得多。微軟的對手不僅是亞馬遜，還有打算培養企業客戶的穀歌。

Although the cloud is the core of the new Microsoft, hardware is another important bet. The firm has shed its ailing mobile-phone division, which it had bought from Nokia, but on its campus in Redmond hundreds of employees are busy developing new devices. Its prototyping lab offers all that a designer of mobile gadgets could want, such as 3D printers to churn out overnight new models of a hinge, for example, or machines to cut the housing of a new laptop from a block of aluminium.

除了作為核心的雲產品，硬件業務也是微軟發展藍圖中的重要一塊。雖然微軟舍棄了收購自諾基亞的手機業務，在雷德蒙德小鎮上，微軟總部的幾千名員工還在開發新的設備。微軟的產品模型實驗室可以滿足一個移動設備開發人員的所有需求，比如能在一夜間製造出全新鉸模型的3D打印機，或是能從鋁塊中切割出全新筆記本電腦外殼的機器。

“Failing faster” is the purpose of the new equipment, says Panos Panay, who is in charge of Microsoft’s hardware business. Designers can test ideas more quickly in pursuit of the firm’s goal to develop new categories of product. Hardware, software and online services are meant to be bundled into a single product to create what the firm gratingly calls an “experience”.

微軟硬件業務負責人帕諾斯•帕奈（Panos Panay）稱，硬件設備的開發理念就是“快速試錯”，開發人員要能快速檢驗自己的想法，滿足公司開發新產品線的需要。微軟意圖把硬軟件產品和在線服務最終合為一個產品，給消費者帶來它們一直宣揚的獨特的產品“體驗”。

One example is the Surface Book, a high-end laptop. It features a detachable screen which doubles as a computing tablet—a combination that has already found a following, and according to some, offers better value than comparable laptops from Apple. More daring still is HoloLens, an augmented-reality device in the form of a wireless head-mounted display. It is capable of mixing “real” and virtual reality for business purposes—for example, by projecting new parts on a motorcycle frame so a designer can easily see what works. (It is currently only available for developers.)

以高端筆記本電腦Surface Book為例。它有一聲可拆卸屏幕，可當作兩個平板來使用——這種二合一的創新模式已有公司開始效仿，同時一些消費者也認為Surface Book比同等的蘋果筆記本電腦更合算。微軟還有一個更加大膽的嚐試，那就是具有增強現實功能的HoloLens，這是一款無線頭戴式顯示器，能夠將“現實”和虛擬現實混合以實現商業目的。比如，摩托車設計者戴上它之後可以看到加上新零件之後摩托車的樣子，從而判斷設計是否可行（目前僅限開發人員使用）。

HoloLens, its designers hope, will also be a device where people use artificial-intelligence services—Mr Nadella’s third big bet. In September Microsoft formed a new AI unit, combining all its efforts in the field, including its basic-research group of more than 1,000 people and the engineering team behind Bing, its search engine.

微軟也希望通過HoloLens為人們提供人工智能服務，這也是納德拉第三個創舉。九月，微軟成立了一個新的人工智能部門，門彙集了微軟在人工智能領域的所有人才，包括1000多人的基礎研發團隊及搜索引擎必應（Bing）背後的工程團隊。

Every single business application is going to be disrupted by AI, says Harry Shum, who is in charge of the new unit. Algorithms trained by reams of data could tell sales staff which leads to spend most time on, and help identify risky deals where, for instance, the customer might not fulfil contract terms. This, he explains, is also a big reason why Microsoft spent a whopping $26bn to buy LinkedIn, a professional social network that has 467m users. The deal adds to the data the firm needs to train its new AI applications.

新部門的負責人沈向洋說，所有的商業應用程序都將受到人工智能的影響。比如，大數據算法能夠告訴銷售人員哪個環節耗費了最多時間，還能夠幫助他們識別存在用戶不履約風險的交易。這也是為什麼微軟要以260億美元的巨額收購擁有4.67億用戶的專業社交網站領英的原因。微軟希望通過這筆交易獲得大量數據，用於開發新的人工智能應用。

AI is a growing part of Azure, too. In recent months Microsoft has introduced two dozen “cognitive services” to Azure. Some understand language and can identify individual speakers, others recognise faces and can tap into academic knowledge. The idea is for other firms to be able to use these offerings to make their own products smarter, thus “democratising AI”. Schneider Electric, which makes gear to manage energy systems, for instance, uses some of Microsoft’s AI services to monitor its equipment.

人工智能也逐漸運用在Azure上。最近幾個月，Azure推出了25款“認知服務”，有些能聽懂人們說的話，能分辨講話者，有些能進行人臉識別，甚至還能挖掘學術知識。微軟希望其它公司也可以利用這些服務讓自己的產品更加智能化，這也是微軟“普及人工智能”的戰略。比如，致力於提供能源管理解決方案的施耐德電氣（Schneider Electric）就使用微軟公司的部分人工智能服務對其設備進行監控。

It is easy to be impressed by what Mr Nadella has achieved in only three years. But it is far from certain that his technology bets will play out as planned. To run a computing cloud profitably you need hyper-efficient operations; something that Amazon, in contrast to Microsoft, has grown up with. Although Microsoft has expertise in AI, others, such as Google and IBM, got a far earlier start. Nor is designing integrated devices part of Microsoft’s DNA in the way it is for Apple. Augmented reality is an extremely promising field but HoloLens may turn out to be no more than an expensive toy for developers.

納德拉在上任後短短三年所取得的成就非常了不起，但是，他的科技計劃是否能夠按照預期展開還遠遠不能確定。要想在雲計算領域盈利，微軟必須實現超高效的運作模式，而這是亞馬遜一直都具有的品質；在人工智能領域，雖然微軟很擅長，但像穀歌和IBM這樣的公司有先發優勢；在開發集成設備方麵，微軟也不敵蘋果公司；增強現實倒是一個極具前景的領域，HoloLens有可能僅僅是開發人員的昂貴玩具。

Success or failure in the new areas will of course continue to be cushioned for some time by the revenues and profits from Windows and Office. Yet there, too, lie risks. If the PC market, whose secular decline has slowed since last year, take another turn for the worse, the company’s finances would suffer badly, warns John DiFucci of Jefferies, an investment bank.

短期內，Windows和Office帶來的收入和利潤足以支持微軟繼續開發新產品，但是開辟新疆場有一定風險。美國投資銀行傑富瑞（Jefferies）的約翰•迪福西（John DiFucci）提醒稱，雖然PC市場的長期衰落趨勢從去年開始有所減緩，如果市場再次滑坡，那麼微軟的財務情況將遭受重創。

Mr Nadella doesn’t seem to be worried by such unknowns, which are to be expected in a fast-changing industry. Instead, he frets about too much success. “When you have a core that’s growing at more than 20%, that is when the rot really sets in,” he says. It remains to be seen whether or not the firm can ever again achieve such velocity. For now, though, its share price is showing plenty of speed.

盡管在日新月異的科技行業，上述擔憂很有可能發生，納德拉似乎並沒有受到這些未知因素的困擾。相反，他擔心微軟一路走得太順。他說：“當一個核心產品以超過20%的速度增長時，衰落也就不遠了。”微軟能否再次實現這樣的增長速度，還需拭目以待。不過，就目前來看，微軟股價的增長勢頭還是相當強勁的。

編譯：雷琰

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來源：經濟學人

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